![]() We all know how long it took us to claw back the jobs, just to get back to where we were before the start of the recession, in terms of job creation. So the economy's certainly nothing to write home about.Īnd how does the economy right now compare to what a reasonable expectation would be in terms of the strength and character of the post-Great Recession rebound? Are we still underperforming? And how many jobs are available? Around 4 million. You’re looking at like 25 million Americans who want full-time work and can’t find it in today’s economy. when you factor all that other stuff in, the number looks much bigger. So the official numbers can mask a whole lot of those problems. You don’t want to continue to see people drop out of the labor force because they’re discouraged, they looked and looked and looked for a job and weren’t successful and said, forget about it. I look at the labor force participation rates, and we all know those have been on a downward trend. You don’t want to see this many people who are working part-time because their employers have cut their hours, and what they really want is a full-time job but they can’t get it. but they're not making what they were before the Great Recession began. So the economy's better in the sense that they're no longer unemployed. We know that too many of the Americans who lost jobs in the downturn and that have gone on to find employment are actually working for wages or salaries that are below what they were when they lost their jobs. Because we’re top-line economic growth figures, and on the surface the unemployment situation appears to be improving, you could make the argument that the economy is improving.īut for too many Americans, it doesn’t feel like it’s improving. Much of Europe is back in recession youth unemployment rates in places like Spain and Greece are nearly 50 percent. But we're comparing it to some pretty rotten economic performances. I’d say, relative to a lot of other countries in the world, the U.S. That doesn't necessarily mean the economy is all better, though. The state of the economy used to be a constant topic of conversation in the media, but it at least seems like that's died down a lot in the past few years. ![]() Our conversation is below and has been edited for clarity and length. According to Kelton, things are not as terrible as they were just a few years ago - but they're also not nearly as rosy as they seem. To answer that question, Salon reached out to professor Stephanie Kelton, the economics department chair at the University of Missouri–Kansas City who frequently analyzes the state of the economy via the New Economic Perspectives blog and her active Twitter account (as well as appearing on TV). ![]() Are they all crazy, or is the economic picture more complicated than it may seem? Yet while anyone who is lucky enough to have financial security may be under the impression that good times are here again, poll after poll after poll shows a clear majority of Americans still think the economy, well, sucks. Valliere sees no recession in sight and predicts new Fed Chair Jerome Powell “won’t rock the boat.Coming on the heels of not only a triumphal speech from President Obama but one of the best job reports of the past six years, now would probably seem like a weird time to share some economic bad news. The president likes the chaos that comes from all of these tweets, but for the investment world, it is largely irrelevant. “For all the president’s flaws, his cabinet is much more pro business than Obama’s. ![]() The word ‘Goldilocks’ is not an exaggeration.” While Valliere credits outgoing Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen for steering much of that success, President Trump’s pro-business, anti-regulatory stances are also sparking stock gains, he says. There’s modest inflation, very strong corporate profits, steady interest rates, GDP growth of 2.5%. It’s hard to get fundamentals any better than we have right now. His big picture view: “Investors need to divorce themselves from the Washington nonsense and focus on the economy. So I called him up and he told me it’s more important to focus on the 80% odds of avoiding conflict. He caught my eye with a recent prediction that there is a 20% chance of war with Korea. analyst Greg Valliere has followed the intersection of business and politics since the 1970s and he’s never seen anything like the current wave of what he calls “chaos and dysfunction” coinciding with a stunning bull market in stocks.Ī frequent guest on Bloomberg and CNBC networks, Valliere has worked as a global equity strategist for Charlotte-based Horizon Investments for the last two years.
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